Alaksir Jakarta blog

So we’re finally going to vote for celebrities an actual parliamentarian in next year’s parliamentary elections instead of some faceless political party, thanks to this lengthy verdict by the almighty Constitutional Court.

But didn’t we also vote for individual nominees in the 2004 parliamentary election?  In fact, the only reason I still remember about that particular election is because that was the first time I could punch on this lovely lady’s picture on the ballot rather than one of the colorfully unattractive party logos as with prior elections.

Apparently, although we were able to pick any individual candidate we liked, there was a catch: any single nominee who won popular votes but did not make the top of the party list for the relevant district or couldn’t secure a full portion of an obscure mathematical arcanum called the Hare quota (it’s called the “Bilangan Pembagi Pemilih” here) would relegate those votes to the nominee on the top of the party list.  In short, many of us were duped.

That’s right, some of you might actually like a particular candidate but detests the party and whatever nominating system it has, in which case your vote for the candidate, most of the time, wouldn’t count.

But is that even possible?  I mean when someone runs for government office under a particular party banner, isn’t she saying that she endorses the party and what it stands for?  Not exactly.  With balance of power increasingly tilting toward the parliament, the political sector now offers the promise of a rewarding career, which means politicians aren’t too motivated to run on promoting their ideology as they are on how to secure jobs for their members until the next election.  In fact, figuring out what each of the parties that will contest next year’s election stands for is like figuring out the Higgs boson.  In effect, with so many parties that don’t seem to be that much different from one another to choose from, it’s really so much easier to put a check mark on the most good looking face on the ballot paper during the election day.

So the Constitutional Court did good, really.  The judges practically stepped into the debate of whether celebrity politicians would add substance or mere good looks to the legislature, and brought legal validity to the latter.

Well okay, not really.  The Court just thinks whoever wins the most votes should get them, and if voters happen to prefer gorgeous but brainless automatons over manipulative and ugly sexagenarians, by god we really should have them.

Some commentators such as Mr. Danang Widyoko of the Indonesian Corruption Watch contend that most of the celebrity politicians that were elected in the last election have not mastered the skills needed to be effective at advancing legislation such as lobbying, debating and so forth.  He says:

Through my lobbying [for Indonesian Corruption Watch] at parliament I come into regular contact with the celebrities elected in 2004. They really don’t have the capacity to debate or raise issues. They do as they are told by the party leaders, sign their names and collect their pay checks.

But really, with looks like these, who needs persuasion skills?

And one last note, the presence of these gorgeous souls amidst our legislators might also encourage them to cut back a little on their chronic habit of not turning up for meetings.

Let’s hope politics don’t get across borders as easily as economy.

The Thais are really setting a bad example for us, aren’t they?  First they had a robber baron for a PM, then a military coup, but then there were mobs occupying the airport, and practically holding the entire country hostage?  What’s next?  A ban on yoga?  Wait, that’s another monarchy.

Bad Thai.

Didn’t you know Thailand and Indonesia have so many similarities?  Just look at these:

Indonesia	Thailand
Indonesia	Thailand

See?  We’re both crazy about yellow and red, and we agree blue is for sissies.  They also mean the same here and there, with a little twist.  Over there, yellow is for the monarch, over here it’s for long time, corrupt political party.

How about red?  Over there it’s for grassroots political party that wants a corrupt former PM back from exile abroad, over here it’s for grassroots political party that wants an incompetent former president back so she can resume her habit of shopping abroad.  You just can’t help making the analogy.

Infecting the entire region with bad credit eleven years ago just wasn’t enough, huh?  You really have to give one of our sultans the idea that monarchy is still relevant, and make him think he has chance to be elected president?

Sultans, kings or whatever should be barred from elections.  They usually don’t make good campaigners or debaters, because, well, you can’t really expect them to take criticisms all that well, given all the privileges they get from birth.  Besides, I don’t think President Sultan or President King would make a good baby name if he wins on a change platform.

But then again, we really don’t have many alternatives do we?  In Thailand, holding any more election would probably just bring Thaksin’s gangs or any one of their reincarnations back in power they say.  Here in Indonesia, the political cartels are scaling back our freedom to choose our president, and the presidential election next year will probably just give us another stinking cat in office for the next five years.

But whether we’ll have a stinking cat or aromatic dog in the presidential palace, I’m glad we’ll still be able to vote a blue-eyed yoga instructor for legislator.

Economist Agustinus Prasetyantoko said that the impact of the global crisis on Indonesia’s economy next year will depend on election results.  Smooth political transitions will give way to a quick recovery, he says.

Well, for a real economic impact of the election, how about this: I have an in-law who owns a printing shop that specializes in printing banners for political parties,… well actually only one particular party, because he’s an activist for that party (hint: it’s the one that reportedly has the most celebrities in its list of nominees for next year).  I’ve never seen a business whose fortunes are directly tied to how many elections the party is contesting like this one.  But just before the campaign season actually kicked off, this guy bought a shiny new car, remodeled his house and dispensed new glimmering mobile phones for his wife and kids.

I’d say that’s a real economic impact of the election right there.  And I imagine that my in-law wouldn’t be the only one who can pull off something like this, especially with more parties and more areas to cover next year:

• 24 parties contested the 2004 election, now we have 44
• We had 32 provinces in 2004, now we have 33; West Sulawesi being the new one
• There were 417 municipalities/regencies in 2004, now there are 485

Democracy can actually be good for the economy after all.

Last week, Helene Cooper of NY Times reported that Barack Obama was thinking of making a major speech to lay out his foreign policy plans from an Islamic capital during his first 100 days.  There was no official statement about where that would actually be, but Cooper concluded it would most likely be Cairo, Egypt.

Ben Smith at Politico.com informed that making a foreign policy speech from a major Islamic forum was actually something that Obama mentioned during his campaign in August.  Later, Smith reported that an Obama donor, Ted Leary, reckoned that Obama had told some of his donors that his first trip would be to Indonesia.

It’s not clear whether Obama intends to do this during an actual Islamic forum or a normal state visit.  An ideal forum that was major enough to be heard but religiously moderate enough in outlook not to anger American Islamophobes was the International Conference of Islamic Scholars (ICIS).  However, it was already conducted in July this year.

Next year, Jakarta will host the fifth World Islamic Economic Forum in March.  Looking at the lineup of invitees, this looks close enough to be ideal as there will be leaders from the Islamic world as well as the West, Japan and even China.  The forum is going to talk about food and energy crises and how to solve them, which will be a very enlightened topic for the future US administration to be engaged in with the Islamic world.

But if Obama is looking to make a normal state visit, President SBY has definitely invited Obama to come to Indonesia during his international tour last month, where the American President-elect said he would love to have another chance to taste some tasty Indonesian cuisine he had grown fond of during his time in Jakarta.

No doubt, this will surely please the 1,641 Indonesians for Obama.  In a sense, this might also give a public relations boost to SBY during next year’s election.  But I’m not sure how Americans will take this, given the state of the current economic crisis back home and a renewed alertness to the Muslims due to the recent event in Mumbai.  I’m betting this visit wouldn’t be as popular to Americans as it would be over here.

Bank Indonesia economist Wiwiek Sistowidayat said that about US$500 million of foreign money has entered Indonesia through the stock market during the last few weeks.  Sistowidayat added that an additional US$5 million made its way to the economy to purchase the government’s sovereign bonds.

Several weeks ago, Bank Indonesia Governor Budiono predicted that foreign funds will return to the market as investors decide to buy up undervalued stocks that offer good returns.

Head of Indonesian Entrepreneurs Association Anton Supit urged the nation’s leaders to declare that an economic crisis has taken place in Indonesia and be ready to make tough, though unpopular decisions.

Well I think asking an incumbent administration that’s going for reelection next year to be ready to lose popularity could be the ultimate Zen paradox.  Mr. Supit said:

We’re already in a crisis, but still unable to change our attitude.  We keep blaming others and working without a good plan.  Hundreds of thousands of people are being laid off, so don’t say that there’s nothing serious to be concerned about.  We need leaders who are ready to be unpopular by declaring that we’re in the middle of a crisis.

Here’s the definition of an economic crisis according to businessdictionary.com:

A situation in which the economy of a country experiences a sudden downturn brought on by a financial crisis. An economy facing an economic crisis will most likely experience a falling GDP, a drying up of liquidity and rising/falling prices due to inflation/deflation. An economic crisis can take the form of a recession or a depression. Also called real economic crisis.

Yet, official statistics are indicating that the economy is still in a relatively good shape.  GDP is still growing 6.1% year on year, and it is spread across all sectors though not equally.  Sure, export industries such as textile, shoes manufacturers are taking hard beatings with order cancellations from global customers on the rise, but it’s hardly a cause to announce a nationwide crisis and risk losing consumer confidence as a result.

In fact, with consumer confidence index still creeping back to an optimistic level after three months, the most irresponsible thing to do for the government right now is to create panic in the market.

Government electricity company PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) is issuing Rp1 trillion (US$85 million) bonds and Rp500 billion (US$42 million) Islamic bonds or sukuk from today until 16 December.  Following this offer, the bonds will be listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange on 12 January next year.

The company plans to use the cash raised to construct electricity generators and transmission facilities to meet its 10,000 MW electricity supply target by 2010.  Underwriting the bonds will be PT Danareksa Sekuritas, PT Trimegah Securities and PT Indo Premier Securities.

Indonesian statistics agency BPS announced in its release today that inflation for November was 0.12 percent, which is considerably lower than 0.45% last month, and is actually the lowest in five month.  The agency also announced that year-to-date inflation was 11.10% and year-on-year was 11.68%.  The government has targeted inflation for this year to reach 11.4%.

Jambi province is preparing an industrial area focused on downstream agricultural and plantation industries at Muara Sabak Port for which all the supporting infrastructures, including the new port, are expected to be completed by 2010.

The new port at Muara Sabak, upon its planned completion in mid next year, will replace Talang Dukuh Port as the main economic gateway to Jambi province. As part of its efforts to boost economic growth, the province’s administration has consistently tried to attract investors interested to establish agriculture and plantation related facilities.

According to Jambi’s Head of Economic and Development Office, Mr. Hasvia, the new port will significantly reduce transport time to and from the province. He also said that two French and Chinese investors have expressed their interest to establish biodiesel manufacturing facilities in the planned industrial area.

Jambi’s main commodity offerings include CPO, rubber and tea. Several areas in the province, most notably Sarolangun and Bungo regencies, are also known to produce coal with low to medium calorific values.

Indonesian private equity firm Northstar Pacific Partners agrees to takeover US$575 million, or a majority amount of PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk’s debt to Odickson Finance SA in exchange for ownership in coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI).

Odickson, a British Virgin Island financial institution, gave a short term loan totaling US$1.086 to the Indonesian conglomerate in April this year as part of an effort to consolidate the company’s ownership in its publicly listed subsidiaries.

Ironically, with the current global crisis setting in, Bakrie has been forced to compromise its stake in its group of companies, particularly its 35% ownership in Indonesia’s biggest exporter of power station grade coal, BUMI, to pay off the pile of debts it has collected.

Analysts have been skeptical whether the deal with Northstar, an Indonesian affiliate of American private buyout firm TPG Capital (TPG.UL), would go through as BUMI controls PT Kaltim Prima Coal and PT Arutmin Indonesia, both of which are Bakrie’s prize assets.  Bakrie announced earlier this month that it agreed to sell its entire 35% stake at BUMI, but news sources indicated it may only end up letting go 20-25%.